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Energy Blue Print

japan energy [r]evolution scenario

Moving from principles to action on energy supply and climate change mitigation requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to have an effect. Any analysis that seeks to tackle energy and environmental issues therefore needs to look ahead at least half a century.

Scenarios are important in describing possible development paths, to give decision-makers an overview of future perspectives and to indicate how far they can shape the future energy system.Two different scenarios are used here to characterise the wide range of possible paths for the future energy supply system: a Reference Scenario, reflecting a continuation of current trends and policies, and the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, which is designed to achieve a set of dedicated environmental policy targets.

the reference scenario

is based on the reference scenario published by the International Energy Agency in World Energy Outlook 2004 (WEO 2004).This only takes existing policies into account.The assumptions include, for example, continuing progress in electricity and gas market reforms, the liberalisation of cross border energy trade and recent policies designed to combat environmental pollution.The Reference Scenario does not include additional policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As the IEA’s scenario only covers a time horizon up to 2030, it has been extended by extrapolating its key macroeconomic indicators. This provides a baseline for comparison with the Energy [R]evolution Scenario.

the energy [r]evolution scenario

has a key target for the reduction of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions down to a level of around 10 to 12 Gigatonnes per year by 2050 in order for the increase in global temperature to remain under +2ºC.A second objective is the global phasing out of nuclear energy.To achieve these targets, the scenario is characterised by significant efforts to fully exploit the large potential for energy efficiency.At the same time, all cost-effective renewable energy sources are accessed for both heat and electricity generation as well as the production of bio fuels.The general framework parameters for population and GDP growth remain unchanged from the Reference Scenario.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contacts

Greenpeace International
Ottho Heldringstraat 5
1066 AZ Amsterdam
The Netherlands
T: +31 20 718 2000
F: +31 20 514 8151
E: sven.teske(at)greenpeace.org
I: www.greenpeace.org

EREC European Renewable Energy Council
Renewable Energy House
63-65, rue d'Arlon
B-1040 Brussels
T: +32 2 546 1933
F: +32 2 546 1934
E: erec(at)erec.org
I: www.erec.org 

Contacts

Greenpeace International
Ottho Heldringstraat 5
1066 AZ Amsterdam
The Netherlands
T: +31 20 718 2000
F: +31 20 514 8151
E: sven.teske(at)greenpeace.org
I: www.greenpeace.org


Institute DLR, Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment, Stuttgart, Germany
Ecofys BV, P.O. Box 8408, NL-3503 RK Utrecht, Kanaalweg 16-G