Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase to a disproportionate extent, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 28). Due to the exploitation of efficiency measures an even higher increase can be avoided, in spite of continuous economic growth, leading to an electricity demand of around 360 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures will avoid the generation of about 200 TWh/a.This continuing reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by using highly efficient electronic devices representing the currently best available technology.
The development of the electricity supply sector is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity.This will compensate for the reduction of coal and a reduction in fossil-fired condensing power plants to the minimum required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 60% of the electricity produced in Indonesia will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – wind, biomass, geothermal and solar energy – will contribute 70% of this capacity.The following strategy paves the way for a future renewable energy supply:
To achieve an economically attractive growth in renewable energy sources, a balanced and timely mobilisation of all technologies is of great importance.This mobilisation depends on technical potentials, actual costs, cost reduction potentials and technological maturity. Figure 32 shows the complementary evolution of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2010, hydro-power and biomass will remain the main contributors. From 2020 onwards, the continually growing use of geothermal will be complemented by electricity from photovoltaics, especially for the supply of households in villages and Indonesia´s more than 6,000 inhabited islands.
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