By 2050, about 62% of the electricity produced in India will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute almost 45% of electricity generation.The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 44 GW to 775 GW in 2050, a substantial increase over the next 40 years.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario projects a faster market development pathway, with higher annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 64% by 2030 and 93% by 2050.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 510 GW in 2030 and 1,325 GW by 2050, 71% higher than in the basic version.
Table 6.15 shows the comparative evolution of different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2030, hydro power and wind will remain the main contributors. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaic and solar thermal (CSP) energy.
While the advanced scenario uses 10% of the known technical potential for PV, 17% for tide and wave and just 5% of the solar thermal potential, the “official” figure for India ́s wind potential is only 100 GW.The overall installed capacity of wind power by 2050 in the advanced version is 346 GW, 3.5 times higher, however. This is because both the Global Wind Energy Council and Greenpeace International believe that India’s wind potential is several times higher than officially recognised, mainly as a result of historic wind speed measurements being taken at a height of only 50 metres – and not the 80 m which is the typical height of a modern wind turbine.
When the United States reworked its wind potential calculations, a change from 50 to 80 m measurement height tripled the overall potential. A new analysis for China has also shown that the wind potential will be 640 GW by 2030 (Science, Vol 325, page 1380, M.B.McElroy et al., September 2009) . We are therefore confident that the projected installed capacity of 346 GW by 2050 for India is realistic.