Archive 2008

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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employment effects

There are 1 million power sector jobs in the [R]evolution scenario in the Transition Economies in 2010, and 1.1 million in the Reference scenario.
Jobs fall sharply in the Reference case after 2010, while growing in the [R]evolution scenario. By 2020, there are 1.1 million jobs in the[R]evolution scenario, 200,000 more than in the Reference scenario.
Job numbers continue to fall in the Reference scenario between2020 and 2030, and strong growth continues in the [R]evolution technologies. By 2030 there are 1.2 million jobs in the[R]evolution compared to 0.9 million in the Reference scenario.

Figure 3.30 shows strong growth in the [R]evolution scenario contrasts with continuing job losses in the Reference scenario. It is assumed that only 30% of renewable energy manufacturing occurs within the region at 2010, increasing to 70% by 2030. However, the Transition economies (mainly Russia) export a high percentage of the inter-regionally traded gas, which results in high employment numbers in the Reference scenario, and significant numbers in the [R]evolution.

Over time, the biggest changes are in coal employment, which drops sharply in both scenarios. In the [R]evolution scenario coal employment almost disappears, to be replaced by biomass as the largest employment sector.