An understanding of the international coal trade is important to make projections for how a switch to renewable energy will affect energy sector jobs around the world. The full ISF Report for this study provides detail on all the factors we used to calculate the employment related to coal powered electricity generation16. These include:
The global trend for energy generation from coal is for bigger mines that employ fewer people. China, the world’s fastest developing economy is expected to close at least 10,000 small mines, and will develop 16 super mines that will produce an average of 70 million tonnes per year each. Of course, the older-style rural mines rely on a lot more manual labour. For comparison, a village miner in China produces 100 tonnes per year, while a single worker in one of the large Chinese super mines produces 30,000tons per year. Examples of average production in other places is 14,000tonnes per year in the US and 13,800 tonnes per year in Australia.
There is a significant reduction in coal sector jobs by 2020 and 2030under both scenarios.
under the Reference scenario jobs in coal go down by more than a third by 2020 despite 40% more generation. By 2030 there is a further reduction of 200,000 jobs. The reasons are:
Under the [R]evolution scenario, growth in coal capacity is almost zero, and by 2030 there is a slight reduction in coal capacity, so there would be a correlating reduction in coal sector jobs. Consequently, the installation and manufacturing jobs in the coal sector would fall to almost zero. The same influences that operate in the Reference scenario compound the losses that would occur for an Energy[R]evolution. The key point of this study is that this loss is off-set by very high labour projections in renewable energy, which would not occur if coal is allowed to continue to dominate the global energy mix.
gas, oil and diesel and nuclear Unsurprisingly, there are corresponding large drops in gas, oil and diesel and nuclear energy jobs under an Energy [R]evolution scenario.
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