Combining the projections on population development, GDP growthand energy intensity results in future development pathways for Chile’senergy demand. These are shown in Figure 6.3 for both the Referenceand Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario,total primary energy demand more than triples from 1,182 PJ/a(2005) up to 3,496 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolutionScenario, primary energy demand doubles compared to currentconsumption and is expected by 2050 to reach 2,389 PJ/a.
Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand isexpected to triple by 2050. The main growth will be in the industrysector as well as in the residential and service sectors (see figure6.4). Total electricity demand will be 171 TWh/a in the year 2050,three times above today’s demand. Compared to the ReferenceScenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 40TWh/a. This reduction in energy demand can be achieved inparticular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices usingthe best available technology in all demand sectors. Employment ofsolar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings willhelp to curb the growing demand for active air-conditioning andelectric heating.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under theEnergy [R]evolution Scenario, demand for heat supply increasefrom 381 PJ/a today to 891 PJ/a in 2050 (see figure 6.5).Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to177 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a resultof energy related renovation of the existing stock of residentialbuildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfortand energy services will be accompanied by a much lower futureenergy demand.
In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolutionScenario that energy demand will increase from 264 PJ/a (2005)to 457 PJ/a by 2050, saving 170% compared to the ReferenceScenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction ofhighly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods fromroad to rail and by changes in mobility-related behavior patterns.
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