Future development pathways for energy demand in Russia are shown in Figure 5.1 for both the Reference and Energy[R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total primary energy demand increases by 38 % from the current27,266 PJ/a to 37,691 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, demand decreases by 19% compared to current consumption and is expected to reach 22,084 PJ/a by 2050.
Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with transport and the households and services sectors being the main source of growing consumption (See Figure 5.2). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 941 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 287 TWh/a.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced after 2015 (See Figure 5.3). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 2,749 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains.
In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolutionScenario that energy demand will decrease by 20% to 3,167 PJ/aby 2050, saving 53% compared to the Reference Scenario.
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