The potential future development pathways for India’s primaryenergy demand are shown in Figure 6.3 for both the Reference andEnergy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, totalprimary energy demand quadruples from the current 22,300 PJ/a to108,491 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, bycontrast, demand will increase by about 230% and is expected toreach 62,577 PJ/a by 2050.

Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand isexpected to increase substantially (see Figure 6.4). With theexploitation of efficiency measures, however, a higher increase can beavoided, leading to demand of around 5,591 TWh/a in 2050.Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid thegeneration of about 1,582 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved inparticular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using thebest available technology in all demand sectors.

Efficiency gains for heat and cooling supply are also significant.Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, final demand for heatingand cooling can even be reduced (see Figure 6.5). Compared to theReference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 4,558 PJ/a is avoidedthrough efficiency gains by 2050.

In the transport sector it is assumed that a fast growing economywill see energy demand, even under the Energy [R]evolutionScenario, increase dramatically - from 1,550 PJ/a in 2005 to 9,478PJ/a by 2050. This still saves 46% compared to the ReferenceScenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highlyefficient vehicles, shifting freight transport from road to rail and bychanges in travel behaviour.