The Energy [R]evolution Scenario combines population projections,GDP growth, and energy intensity to propose a new pathway forU.S. energy demand. These are shown in Figure 4.2 for both theReference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the ReferenceScenario, total primary energy demand increases by more than 40percent from the current 96,826 PJ/a to 138,186 PJ/a in 2050. Inthe Energy [R]evolution Scenario, primary energy demand decreasesby 24 percent compared to current consumption and is expected toreach 63,294 PJ/a by 2050.

Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand isexpected to decrease in the industry sector, but to grow in thetransport as well as in the residential and service sectors (see 4.3).Total electricity demand will rise to 5,408 TWh/a in the year 2050.Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid thegeneration of about 2,244 TWh/a. This reduction in energy demandcan be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficientelectronic devices using the best available technology in all demandsectors. For example, employment of solar architecture in bothresidential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growingdemand for active air-conditioning.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under theEnergy [R]evolution Scenario, demand for heat supply will grow upto 2030, but after that can be reduced to below the 2015 level (see4.4). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalentto 6,963 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As aresult of energy-related renovation of the existing residentialbuildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards fornew buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy serviceswill be accompanied by much lower future energy demand.

In the transport sector, the Energy [R]evolution Scenario forecaststhat energy demand will decrease by 50 percent to 13,505 PJ/a by2050, saving 66 percent compared to the Reference Scenario. Thisreduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficientvehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail, and bymaking mobility-related lifestyle changes.