The development of the electricity supply sector is characterized bya dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasingshare of renewable electricity. This growth will compensate for thephasing out of nuclear energy and will reduce the number of fossilfuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilization. By 2050, 95percent of the electricity produced in the U.S. will come fromrenewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables—mainly wind, solarthermal energy and PV—will contribute over 85 percent ofelectricity generation.
Figure 4.6 shows the comparative evolution of the differentrenewable technologies in the U.S. over time. Up to 2020,hydropower and wind will remain the main contributors to thegrowing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of windwill be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaicsand solar thermal (CSP) energy.
Figure 4.7 shows that the up-front investment costs associated withthe introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy[R]evolution Scenario will slightly but temporarily increase theprice of electricity compared to the Reference Scenario. Thisdifference will be less than 0.8 cents/kWh before 2020. Because ofthe better energy efficiency, the development of renewable energytechnologies, and lower CO2 intensity, by 2020 electricity generationcosts will become economically favorable under the Energy[R]evolution Scenario, and by 2050 generation costs will be morethan 3 cents/kWh below those in the Reference Scenario.
Under the Reference Scenario, on the other hand, unchecked growthin demand, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s$352 billion per year to more than $904 billion in 2050. Figure 4.8shows that the Energy [R]evolution Scenario helps stabilize energycosts and relieve societal economic pressure.
Long term, costs for electricity supply in the Energy [R]evolutionScenario are one-third lower than in the Reference Scenario.
 |
|