development of electricity demand by sector

Under the energy [r]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to decrease. With the exploitation of efficiency measures, an increase can be avoided despite continuing economic growth, leading to electricity demand of around 3,600 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 3,200 TWh/a.This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. Introduction of passive solar design in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for active air-conditioning.

electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050 nearly 80% of the electricity produced in the United States will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables - mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV -will contribute most of electricity generation. The following strategy paves the way for a future renewable energy supply:

• The phasing out of nuclear energy and rising electricity demand will be met initially by bringing into operation new highly efficient gas-fired combined-cycle power plants, plus an increasing capacity of wind turbines and biomass. In the long term, wind will be the most important single source of electricity generation.
• Solar energy, hydro and biomass will make substantial contributions to electricity generation. In particular, as non-fluctuating renewable energy sources, hydro, biomass and solar thermal, combined with efficient heat storage, will be important elements in the overall generation mix.
• The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 107 GW to 888 GW in 2050. Increasing renewable capacity by a factor of eight within the next 43 years requires political support and well-designed policy instruments, however. There will be a considerable demand for investment in new production capacity over the next 20 years.As investment cycles in the power sector are long, decisions on restructuring America’s energy supply system need to be taken now.

To achieve an economically attractive growth in renewable energy sources, a balanced and timely mobilisation of all technologies is of great importance. This mobilisation depends on technical potentials, cost reduction and technological maturity. Figure 22 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2010, hydro power and biomass will remain the main contributors to the growing market share. After 2020, the growing use of wind will take over the lead, complemented by electricity from photovoltaics and solar thermal power plants.

This scenario is only one possible renewable future. Relative growth rates should not be taken for a Greenpeace endorsement of one technology over another, but instead reflect the current understanding of resource potential and somewhat conservative assumptions about expected technological development. There are several renewable resources and technologies that could provide a much larger source of energy in the future than projected here. Geothermal power plants, for example, could ultimately provide far more energy than is reflected in our scenario if recent evaluations by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory hold up. Similarly, ocean energy and solar thermal power, both of which have tremendous resource potential, could turn out to be more attractive than is currently understood. Therefore, the scenario presented here may be quite conservative, given the sheer size of the renewable resource base and the opportunity for technology advancement and cost reductions during the study period.