In 2050, the light duty vehicle stock in China will be 20 times larger than today. Today, more medium to large sized cars are driven in China, with an unusually high annual mileage. With growing individual mobility, an increasing share of small efficient cars is projected, with vehicle kilometres driven converging with industrialised country averages. More efficient propulsion technologies, including hybrid-electric powertrains and lightweight construction, will help limit the increase in total transport energy demand to a factor of 3.4, reaching 17,300 PJ/a in 2050. As China already has a large fleet of electric vehicles, this will grow to the point where almost 25% of total transport energy is covered by electricity. Bio fuels will contribute about 7%.
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