The future development pathways for the OECD Pacific’s primary energy demand are shown in Figure 6.117 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total primary energy demand increases by 27% - from the current 37,040 PJ/a to 47,020 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, by contrast, primary energy demand decreases by 33% compared to current consumption and is expected by 2050 to reach 24,950 PJ/a.

Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand in the industry as well as the residential and services sectors is expected to fall slightly below the current level of demand (see Figure 6.118). The growing use of electric vehicles however leads to an increase in electricity demand, reaching 1,920 TWh/a in 2050. Overall demand is still 560 TWh/a lower than in the Reference Scenario.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced (see Figure 6.119). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 2,860 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.

In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario that energy demand will decrease by 40% to 4,000 PJ/a by 2050, saving about 50% compared to the Reference Scenario.