energy demand by sector
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for North America’s energy demand. These are shown in Figure 6.18 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total primary energy demand increases by more than 40% from the current 115,900 PJ/a to 164,300 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, primary energy demand decreases by 33% compared to current consumption and is expected by 2050 to reach 77,700 PJ/a.
Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand is expected to decrease in the industry sector, but to grow in the transport as well as in the residential and service sectors (see Figure 6.19). Total electricity demand will rise to 5,730 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 2,460 TWh/a. This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. Employment of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for active air-conditioning.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, demand for heat supply will grow up to 2030, but after that can even be reduced to below the current level (see Figure 6.20). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 7,850 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.
In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario that energy demand will decrease by half to 16,720 PJ/a by 2050, saving 65% compared to the Reference Scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.