Future development pathways for Africa’s energy demand are shown in Figure 6.51 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total primary energy demand more than doubles from the current 25,200 PJ/a to 53,300 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, a much smaller 50% increase on current consumption is expected by 2050 to reach 38,300 PJ/a.

Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand in Africa is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 6.52). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 1,340 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 620 TWh/a. Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are also significant. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced (see Figure 6.53). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 550 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.

In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario that energy demand will almost double to 5,300 PJ/a by 2050, still saving 46% compared to the Reference Scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour.