The future development pathways for the Middle East’s energy demand are shown in Figure 6.62 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total primary energy demand more than doubles from the current 21,400 PJ/a to 54,980 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, a much smaller 28% increase on current consumption is expected by 2050, reaching 27,600 PJ/a.

Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 6.63), leading to an electricity demand of around 1,620 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 390 TWh/a. Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario (see Figure 6.64), consumption equivalent to 2,650 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.

In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario that energy demand will be slightly reduced compared to today’s level, reaching 3,990 PJ/a by 2050, a saving of 49% compared to the Reference Scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobilityrelated behaviour patterns.