energy demand by sector
Future development pathways for energy demand in the Transition Economies are shown in Figure 6.73 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total primary energy demand increases by 38 % from the current 46,250 PJ/a to 63,930 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, demand decreases by 23% compared to current consumption and is expected to reach 35,760 PJ/a by 2050.
Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with transport and the households and services sectors being the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 6.74). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 1,550 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 560 TWh/a.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced after 2030 (see Figure 6.75). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 5,990 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains.
In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario that energy demand will decrease by 28% to 4,240 PJ/a by 2050, saving 57% compared to the Reference Scenario.