development of final energy demand

Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for the world’s energy demand.These are shown in Figure 9 for both the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total energy demand increases from the current 4,761 PJ/a to 6,127 PJ/a in 2020, an increase of 29%. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, a decrease to 3982 PJ/a, or 16% below current consumption is achieved by 2020.

An accelerated increase in energy efficiency, which is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a sufficiently large share of renewable sources in energy supply, will be beneficial from an environmental and economic point of view.Taking into account the full life cycle, in most cases the implementation of energy efficiency measures saves money compared to increasing energy supply. A dedicated energy efficiency strategy therefore helps to compensate in part for the additional costs required during the market introduction phase of renewable energy sources.

Under the Reference Scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase substantially, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see figure 10).With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, final energy consumption can be reduced to 40% below the reference scenario by 2020, a saving of 105 TWh/a.This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. Employment of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for active air-conditioning.