development of heat supply demand

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced (see 19). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 1381 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.

 

heat and cooling supply

Development of renewables in the heating and cooling supply sector raises different issues.Today in Japan, renewables provide over 2.6% of primary energy demand for heat supply, the main contribution being the use of biomass for heating. Large-scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy for heat supply is not only restricted to the housing sector, but increasingly used within the industrial sector. Past experience shows that it is easier to implement effective support instruments in the grid-connected electricity sector than in the heat market, with its multitude of different actors. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development of renewables in the heat market.

• Energy efficiency measures can reduce the current demand for heat supply by about 38%, in spite of improving living standards.
• In the housing sector, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy will increasingly replace conventional fossilfuelled heating systems.
• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications will lead to a further reduction of CO2 emissions.