Introduction of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for active airconditioning. Efficiency gains in the heating and cooling supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [Revolution Scenario, final energy demand for heat supply even reduces by 2050 (see Figure 29). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption of 2,000 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.
The reduction of energy demand in industry and other sectors is complemented by significant efficiency gains in the transport sector, which is not analysed in detail in the present study. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, it is assumed that final energy demand for transport in Indonesia will grow to a moderate 2,800 PJ/a in 2050, thus saving 40% compared to the Reference Scenario.This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.
Development of renewables in the heating and cooling supply sector raises different issues.Today, renewables provide nearly 50% of primary energy demand for heat supply, the main contribution being the traditional use of biomass for cooking and heating, especially by poorer people.The lack of availability of more efficient but cheap appliances is a severe structural barrier to efficiency gains. Large-scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy for heat supply is restricted to the industrial sector. Past experience shows that it is easier to implement effective support instruments in the grid-connected electricity sector than in the heat market, with its multitude of different actors. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development of renewables in the heat market.
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