Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for final energy demand in Indonesia.These are shown in Figure 27 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total energy demand will more than double from the current 4,500 PJ/a to 11,300 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, we expect a much slower increase to 6,500 PJ/a in 2050, which is about 45% more than today, but reducing by 40% the projected consumption under the Reference Scenario.

The accelerated increase of energy efficiency, which is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a sufficiently large share of renewable energy sources in energy supply, is beneficial not only for the environment but also from an economic point of view.Taking into account the full service life, in most cases the implementation of energy efficiency measures saves costs compared to additional energy supply.The mobilisation of energy saving potential leads directly to a reduction in costs. A dedicated energy efficiency strategy therefore helps to compensate in part for the additional costs required during the market introduction phase of renewable energy sources.

Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase to a disproportionate extent, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 28). Due to the exploitation of efficiency measures an even higher increase can be avoided, in spite of continuous economic growth, leading to an electricity demand of around 360 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures will avoid the generation of about 200 TWh/a.This continuing reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by using highly efficient electronic devices representing the currently best available technology.

Introduction of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for active airconditioning. Efficiency gains in the heating and cooling supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [Revolution Scenario, final energy demand for heat supply even reduces by 2050 (see Figure 29). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption of 2,000 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.

The reduction of energy demand in industry and other sectors is complemented by significant efficiency gains in the transport sector, which is not analysed in detail in the present study. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, it is assumed that final energy demand for transport in Indonesia will grow to a moderate 2,800 PJ/a in 2050, thus saving 40% compared to the Reference Scenario.This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.