Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the energy [r]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can be stabilised and even reduced after 2030 (see Figure 19). Compared to the reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 10,000 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.
In the transport sector, which is not analysed in detail in the present study, it is assumed under the energy [r]evolution scenario that energy demand will more than double to 4,500 PJ/a by 2050, saving 50% compared to the reference scenario.This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.
Development of renewables in the heat supply sector raises different issues. Today, renewables provide about 70%of primary energy demand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass for cooking and heating, especially by poorer people.The availability of more efficient but cheap appliances is a severe structural barrier to efficiency gains. Large-scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy for heat supply is likely to be restricted to the industrial sector.Past experience shows that it is easier to implement effective support instruments in the grid-connected electricity sector than in the heat market,with its multitude of different factors. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development.
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