development of electricity demand by sector

Under the energy [r]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 18).With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 2,400 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the reference scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 1,000 TWh/a.This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. Introduction of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for active air-conditioning.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the energy [r]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can be stabilised and even reduced after 2030 (see Figure 19). Compared to the reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 10,000 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.

In the transport sector, which is not analysed in detail in the present study, it is assumed under the energy [r]evolution scenario that energy demand will more than double to 4,500 PJ/a by 2050, saving 50% compared to the reference scenario.This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.

electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity.This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 60% of the electricity produced worldwide will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables - mainly wind and solar energy - will contribute 40% of electricity generation.The following strategy paves the way for a future renewable energy supply:

• The phasing out of nuclear energy and rising electricity demand will be met initially by bringing into operation new highly efficient gas-fired combined-cycle power plants, plus an increasing capacity of wind turbines.
• In the long term, solar energy will be the most important renewable source of electricity generation - from PV and solar thermal power plants.Wind, hydro and biomass will make substantial contributions to electricity generation. In particular, as non-fluctuating renewable energy sources, hydro and solar thermal, combined with efficient heat storage, are important elements in the overall generation mix.
• Because of nature conservation concerns, the use of hydro power will not grow more than 30% compared to the reference scenario, although the potential is estimated to be even higher.
• The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 31 GW to 600 GW in 2050. Increasing renewable capacity by a factor of 20 within the next 43 years requires political support and well-designed policy instruments, however.There will be a considerable demand for investment in new production capacity over the next 20 years. As investment cycles in the power sector are long, decisions on restructuring the Indian energy supply system need to be taken now.

To achieve an economically attractive growth in renewable energy sources, a balanced and timely mobilisation of all technologies is of great importance.This mobilisation depends on technical potentials, cost reduction and technological maturity. Figure 22 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2020, hydro-power and wind will remain the main contributors to the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal energy.