5.3 growth in generation of electricity
The projections for the Energy [R]evolution are based on recent experience in the domestic and international markets.The photovoltaic industry, for example, experienced an annual rate of growth of 46% from 2002 to 2012 (Epia, 2013), and wind energy grew by 25% worldwide over the same period: from zero to over 2,000 MW in Brazil (GWEC, 2013). Studies on wind and solar potential in Brazil, such as those presented in the Solarmetric Atlas and Wind Atlas, indicate that the potential for implementation in Brazil is huge. Currently, Brazil uses less than 1% of its wind potential and practically none of its solar potential.
In 2050, 91.9% of the electricity produced in the country will come from renewable energies. The installed capacity of this type of energy should quadruple over the next 40 years, rising from 92,000 MW in 2010 to 396,000 MW in 2050.
Development of the supply of electricity is characterized by a growing renewable energy market and, consequently, by a growing share of the electrical mix.This will compensate the gradual elimination of nuclear energy and reduction in the number of fossil fuel-fired thermoelectric plants. Between 2020 and 2030, the share of renewable energies will fall to 78%, but after this transition period, the greater penetration of the “new” renewable energies—primarily wind, photovoltaic, CSP (thermal solar) and biomass—should contribute so that the electrical mix is 91.9% renewable—of this total, 35% will be composed of intermittent or fluctuating renewable energies.
The installed capacity of renewable sources will rise to 197 GW in 2030 and 396 GW in 2050.
Table 5.3 shows the comparative growth of the different renewable technologies in Brazil over time. Before 2030, wind and photovoltaic solar power will help the renewable market grow. After 2030, the continuous growth of wind and photovoltaic solar power will be complemented by an expansion of CSP (concentrated solar power) and ocean energy.The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects a share of fluctuating energy generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 16% in 2030.
After 2030, the expansion of intelligent grids, the management of the demand side and an increase in energy storage capacity— based on a higher percentage of electric vehicles, for example— can be used to establish better integration with the electrical
grid and the management of fluctuating sources. In this way, the share of fluctuating renewable energies should reach 35% of the total in 2050.
5.3.1 scenario for 2010
According to calculations for the reference scenario, the consumption of electricity in Brazil will triple in 40 years (from 438 TWh in 2010 to 1,147 TWh in 2050). In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the consumption of electricity is lower, reaching 1,023 TWh in 2050, or in other words, around 11% less than the reference scenario.
Energy efficiency measures have the potential to reduce consumption by 205 TWh in 2050, which would postpone the need to expand part of the installed capacity projected for the period.The progressive reduction in consumption is achieved through the use of efficient electrical equipment in all sectors, raising public awareness on the rational use of electricity and managing the supply in order to shift peaks of simultaneous and intense energy use.
5.3.2 reference scenario for 2050
In the year 2010, the distribution of electricity generation was composed in the following manner: 78.2% hydroelectric, 7.9% natural gas, 6.1% biomass, 3.1% diesel and fuel oil, 2.8% nuclear, 1.5% coal and 0.4% wind. For 2050, the reference scenario projects generation of 1,362 TWh, distributed as shown in Figure 5. In this projection, the share of renewable energy falls to 69.9%. Hydroelectric generation is responsible for 54.4%, natural gas for 23.1%, wind, 7.6%, biomass, 6%, nuclear, 4.3%, fuel oil and diesel, 1.4% and coal, 1.3%.
5.3.3 energy [r]evolution scenario for 2050
According to projections for the Energy [R]evolultion scenario, in 2050, 92.7% of the electricity produced in Brazil will come from renewable sources (1,325 TWh/year) and the savings achieved through energy efficiency will be 13% (205 TWh).
Excluded from this scenario are fuel oil and coal-fired thermoelectric plants and nuclear plants. The generation of energy from fossil fuels will be restricted to natural gas—the least polluting fossil fuel—with a 6.5% share in electrical generation.
The expansion of hydroelectric plants should focus on small plants, and their share will be around 40% of total generation. Different types of biomass uses will generate 7% of the electricity needed. Onshore and offshore wind power will contribute with 21%. Whereas solar generation, through photovoltaic panels and heliothermal plants, should rise to 23%. Ocean energy will still contribute little to the total, with 0.83%.