In 2050, the car fleet in China will be 10 times larger than today. Today, more medium to large-sized cars are driven in China with an unusually high annual mileage. With growing individual mobility, an increasing share of small efficient cars is projected, with vehicle kilometres driven resembling industrialised countries averages. More efficient propulsion technologies, including hybridelectric power trains, and lightweight construction, will help to limit the growth in total transport energy demand to a factor of 2, reaching 12,600 PJ/a in 2050. As China already has a large fleet of electric vehicles, this will grow to the point where almost 55% of total transport energy is covered by electricity.
By 2030 electricity will provide 13% of the transport sector’s total energy demand under the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under both scenarios road transport volumes increases significantly. However, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the toal energy demand for road transport increases from 5,224 PJ/a in 2009 to 7,794 PJ/a in 2050, compared to about 22,400 PJ/a in the Reference case.