The development of the electricity supply market is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 92% of the electricity produced in China will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal power and PV – will contribute 60% of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 27% already by 2020 and 43% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 1,298 GW in 2030 and 3,076 GW by 2050, an enormous increase.
Table 5.55 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in China over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal (CSP) energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 19% by 2030 and 48% by 2050, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity e.g. from the increasing share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.