Key results - non OECD Asia

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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regional results non oecd asia energy demand by sector

energy demand by sector

The future development pathways for Non OECD Asia’s final energy demand are shown in Figure 5.109 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in Remaining Asia more than doubles form the current 32,536 PJ/a to 73,869 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, a much smaller 45% increase is expected, reaching 47,026 PJ/a.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately in Non OECD Asia (see Figure 5.110). With the introduction of serious efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand (final energy) of around 3,205 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference case, efficiency measures avoid the generation of 1,117 TWh/a or 30% in the industry, residential and service sectors.

Efficiency gains in the heating sector are also significant (see Figure 5.112). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 3,495 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050. In the transport sector it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will rise from 4,887 PJ/a in 2009 to 5,707 PJ/a by 2050.

However this still saves 55% compared to the Reference scenario. By 2030 electricity will provide 15% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario increasing to 37% by 2050.