Scenarios for a future energy supply

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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regional results india primary energy consumption

primary energy consumption

Taking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.108. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 45% in 2050. Around 81% of the remaining demand (including non energy consumption) will be covered by renewable energy sources.

The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about 10 to 15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2010. This is made possible mainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables after 20 rather than 40 years lifetime and a faster introduction of electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace oil combustion engines. This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 48% in 2030 and 81% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2045.