Scenarios for a future energy supply

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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regional results india future investments in the heat sector

future investments in the heat sector

Also in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario would require a major revision of current investment strategies in heating technologies. Especially the not yet so common solar and geothermal and heat pump technologies need enormous increase in installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heat sector. Installed capacity need to increase by the factor of 360 for solar thermal compared to 2009 and - if compared to the Reference scenario - by the factor of 130 for geothermal and heat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies will remain a main pillar of heat supply.

Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from low tech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to very sophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermal district heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can only roughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario in total requires around $ 1,293 billion to be invested in renewable heating technologies until 2050 (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 32 billion per year.