energy demand by sector
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s final energy demand. These are shown in Figure 5.83 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand increases by 46% from the current 47,166 PJ/a to 69,013 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, primary energy demand decreases by 21% compared to current consumption and it is expected to reach 37,240 PJ/a by 2050.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is increase to decrease in both the industry sector, the residential and service sectors, as well in the transport sector (see Figure 5.84). Total electricity demand (final energy) will rise from 1,154 TWh/a to 2,122 TWh/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 743 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, heat demand is expected to decrease almost constantly (see Figure 5.86). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 10,028 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energyrelated renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.