The development of the electricity supply market is charaterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy, reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation and will cover the demand for additionally necessary storable fuels such as hydrogen (increasing to more than 900 TWh in 2050). By 2050, 98% of the electricity produced in Middle East will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, PV and solar thermal energy – will contribute 94% of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 27% already by 2020 and 62% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 412 GW in 2030 and 1089 GW by 2050.
Table 5.31 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in Middle East over time. Up to 2020 wind, photovoltaics and solar thermal power will overtake hydro as the main contributor of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind, PV and CSP will be complemented by electricity from geothermal and ocean energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 32% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and new storage capacities e.g. from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.