future costs of electricity generation

Figure 5.62 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario does not increase the costs of electricity generation in Africa compared to the Reference scenario - assuming fossil fuel prices and investment costs according to the pathways defined in Chapter 4. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 9.7 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version.

Under the Reference scenario, by contrast, unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 85 billion per year to more than $ 493 billion in 2050. Figure 5.62 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with Africa’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are 31% lower than in the Reference scenario, including estimated costs for efficiency measures.