key results of the sweden energy [r]evolution scenario
6.1 development of energy demand to 2050
The future development pathways for Sweden’s energy demand are shown in Figure 6.1. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in Sweden increases by 8% from the current 2,200 PJ/a to 2,370 PJ/a in 2050. The energy demand in 2050 under the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario decreases by 37% and 39% in the advanced case, compared to current consumption. By 2050 it is expected to reach 1,390 PJ/a and 1,340 PJ/a respectively. Under the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industrial, residential and service sectors is expected to decrease after 2015 (see Figure 6.2). Efficiency measures in industry and other sectors avoid the generation of about 25 TWh/a (30 TWh/a in the Energy [R]evolution scenario) compared to the Reference scenario.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier and sees more freight and passenger transport shifting to electric trains and public transport. This leads to an electricity demand in the transport sector of 36 TWh/a in the advanced scenario in 2050 (33 TWh/a in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario), compared to 5 TWh/a in the Reference scenario. In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will decrease to 220 PJ/a by 2050, saving 43% compared to the Reference scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are higher than in the electricity sector. Under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, final demand for heat supply can be reduced significantly (see Figure 6.3). Compared to the Reference scenario, heat consumption equivalent to 150 PJ/a, or 25%, in the advanced case is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy service with a much lower future energy demand.
The increasing number of electric vehicles and quicker phase-out of fossil fuels from industrial process heat generation towards electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen lead electricity demand rising to 170TWh in the advanced Energy [R]evolution by 2050.
6.2 electricity generation
The future development pathways for Sweden’s energy demand are showThe development of the electricity supply sector in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario is characterised by a rapidly growing renewable energy market. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, all the electricity produced in Sweden will come from renewable energy sources (100%).
Figure 6.4 shows the evolution of the electricity mix in Sweden under 3 different scenarios. Up to 2020, hydro and wind power will remain the main contributors to the growing RES market share. After 2020, the continued growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from photovoltaic, biomass and geothermal. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a higher share of variable power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 35% by 2030 and of 36% by 2050. Therefore, the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from an increased share of electric vehicles and pumped hydropower will be used for better grid integration and power generation management.
The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 33 GW to 71 GW in 2050, increasing renewable capacity by a factor of 2,2 (see Figure 6.1) in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario. Wind power and photovoltaics cover around 50% of the total installed renewable capacity. The remaining capacity is mainly provided by hydro power and smaller shares of biomass and geothermal power.
6.3 future costs of electricity generation
The introduction of renewable technologies under the two Energy [R]evolution scenarios slightly increases the specific costs of electricity generation compared to the Reference scenario until 2030 (see Figure 6.5). This difference will be about 0.3 euro cent/kWh. In 2050, the specific costs for one kWh add up to 6.2 euro cent in the advanced scenario, 6.3 euro cent in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario and 7.2 euro cent in the Reference scenario. Under the Reference scenario, the growth in demand, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s €.7 billion per year to €.10 bn in 2050. Figure 6.5 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenarios not only comply with Sweden’s CO2 reduction targets but also help to stabilise energy costs in the long term. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables result in long term costs for electricity supply that are even lower in the advanced and in the Energy [R]evolution scenario than in the reference case. This is possible because of decreasing specific investment costs for renewable technologies as a result of increasing global production volumes and corresponding learning curves. In spite of the increased electricity demand especially in the transport and industry sector the overall total supply costs in the advanced case are € 0.4 bn in 2030 and € -0.1 bn in 2050 lower than in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.