key results of the chile energy [r]evolution scenario
The development of future global energy demand is determined by three key factors:
• Population development: the number of people consuming energy or using energy services.
• Economic development, for which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most commonly used indicator. In general, an increase in GDP triggers an increase in energy demand.
• Energy intensity: how much energy is required to produce a unit of GDP.
Both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the two, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution Scenar
projection of energy intensity
An increase in economic activity and a growing population does not necessarily have to result in an equivalent increase in energy demand. There is still a large potential for exploiting energy efficiency measures. Under the Reference Scenario, we assume that energy intensity will be reduced by 1.25% on average per year, leading to a reduction in final energy demand per unit of GDP of about 56% between 2005 and 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, it is assumed that active policy and technical support for energy efficiency measures will lead to an even higher reduction in energy intensity of almost 73%.
energy demand by sector
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Chile’s energy demand. These are shown in Figure 6.3 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. Under the Reference Scenario, total primary energy demand more than triples from 1,182 PJ/a (2005) up to 3,496 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, primary energy demand doubles compared to current consumption and is expected by 2050 to reach 2,389 PJ/a.
Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand is expected to triple by 2050. The main growth will be in the industry sector as well as in the residential and service sectors (see figure 6.4). Total electricity demand will be 171 TWh/a in the year 2050, three times above today’s demand. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 40 TWh/a. This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. Employment of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for active air-conditioning and electric heating.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, demand for heat supply increase from 381 PJ/a today to 891 PJ/a in 2050 (see figure 6.5). Compared to the Reference Scenario, consumption equivalent to 177 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.
In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario that energy demand will increase from 264 PJ/a (2005) to 457 PJ/a by 2050, saving 170% compared to the Reference Scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behavior patterns.