Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth, and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Canada’s final energy demand. These are shown in Figure 6.1 for the Reference and both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario, final energy demand (without non-energy use) increases by 28% from the current 7,614 petajoules per annum (PJ/a) to 9,746 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final energy demand decreases by 44% compared to current consumption and is expected to reach 4,280 PJ/a by 2050.
Under the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario electricity demand is expected to decrease in the industry sector, stay steady in the residential and service sectors, but to grow in the transport sector (see Figure 6.2). Total electricity demand will rise from 1,830 PJ/a to 1,943 PJ/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 996 PJ/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. In the Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, total electricity demand is even higher at 2,113 PJ/a due to a greater reliance on electricity for use in transport.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario demand for heat supply constantly decreases through 2050 (see Figure 6.3). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 2,094 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050 in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low-energy standards and of “passive houses” for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand
In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenarios that energy demand will decrease by 48% relative to current levels by 2050. This is 56% lower than what would happen to transport energy demand by 2050 in the Reference scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles; by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail; and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns. The Advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario has a higher share of electric drives, further reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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