energy demand by sector

The future development pathways for Europe’s energy demand are shown in Figure 4.1. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in EU 27 increases by 3% from the current 73,880 PJ/a to 75,920 PJ/a in 2050. The energy demand in 2050 under the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario decreases by 39%, and 38% in the advanced case, compared to current consumption. By 2050, it is expected to reach 45,040 PJ/a and 46,030 PJ/a respectively.

Under the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industrial, residential and service sectors are expected to decrease after 2015 (see Figure 4.2). Efficiency measures in industry and other sectors avoid the generation of about 1,335 TWh/a (1,410 TWh/a in the Energy [R]evolution scenario) compared to the Reference scenario. This reduction in energy demand can be achieved, in particular, by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology.

The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier and sees more freight and passenger transport shifting to electric trains and public transport. This leads to an electricity demand in the transport sector of 1,240 TWh/a in the advanced scenario and 850 TWh/a in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario in 2050, compared to 135 TWh/a in the Reference scenario.

In the transport sector, it is assumed under the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will decrease to 7,250 PJ/a by 2050, saving 52% compared to the Reference scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are higher than in the electricity sector. Under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, final demand for heat supply can be reduced significantly (see Figure 4.3). Compared to the Reference scenario, heat consumption equivalent to 6340 PJ/a, or 25%, in the advanced case (5960 PJ/a, or 23%, in the Energy [R]evolution), is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive house standards’ for new buildings, it will be possible to enjoy the same comfort and energy service with a much lower future energy demand.

The increasing number of electric vehicles and quicker phase-out of fossil fuels from industrial process heat generation towards electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen lead to a rising electricity demand of 4,220 TWh in the advanced Energy [R]evolution by 2050. This value is still 11% lower than in the Reference case.

Further details regarding the electricity sector can be found in the next paragraph.

heating and cooling supply

Renewables currently provide 13% of EU 27 primary energy demand for heat supply, mostly through biomass. The lack of district heating networks is a severe structural barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. In the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 92% of EU 27 total heating and cooling demand by 2050. This value is 36 percentage points higher than in the Energy [R]evolution scenario due to two main effects:

• Strict energy efficiency measures through tight building standards and renewable heating systems, among other things, are introduced around 5 years ahead of the Energy [R]evolution scenario. They can decrease the current demand for heat supply by 6340 PJ/a, or 25%, compared to the Reference scenario by 2050, while improving living standards.

• Solar collectors and geothermal heating systems, eclipsing fossil fuel-fired systems, achieve economies of scale via ambitious support programmes 5 to 10 years earlier than in the Energy [R]evolution scenario. This leads to a renewable share in the advanced scenario which is more than four times higher than in the Reference scenario (92%).

electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario is characterised by a rapidly growing renewable energy market. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, nearly all the electricity produced in EU 27 will come from renewable energy sources (97%). Figure 4.5 shows the evolution of the European electricity mix under the three different scenarios. Up to 2020, hydro and wind power will remain the main contributors to the growing RES market share. After 2020, the continued growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from photovoltaic, biomass, geothermal and solar thermal (CSP) energy. The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a higher share of variable power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 36% by 2030 and 52% in 2050. Therefore, the expansion of smart grids, demand-side management (DSM) and storage capacity from an increased share of electric vehicles and pumped hydropower will be used for better grid integration and power generation management.

The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 223 GW to 1,520 GW in 2050, increasing renewable capacity by a factor of almost 7 (see Table 4.1) in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario. Wind power and photovoltaics each cover around a third of the total installed renewable capacity, around 500 GW each. The remaining third is mainly provided by hydro power (160 GW) and equal 100 GW shares of biomass, geothermal and CSP power.

Compared to the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the advanced scenario sees more than 40% additional power from renewable energy sources to satisfy increased electricity demand. While a faster uptake of the different renewable energy technologies is assumed, only the use of biomass is kept to a lower level for sustainability reasons.

Read more in Chapter 4 of the EU-27 energy [r]evolution report.