the global energy [r]evolution 2010
The development of future global energy demand is determined by three key factors:
- Population development: the number of people consuming energy or using energy services.
- Economic development, for which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most commonly used indicator. In general, an increase in GDP triggers an increase in energy demand.
- Energy intensity: how much energy is required to produce a unit of GDP.
The Reference and both versions of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the two alternative cases, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios.
projection of energy intensity
An increase in economic activity and a growing population does not necessarily have to result in an equivalent increase in energy demand. There is still a large potential for exploiting energy efficiency measures. Under the Reference scenario we assume that energy intensity will be reduced by 1.25% on average per year, leading to a reduction in final energy demand per unit of GDP of about 56% between 2007 and 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario it is assumed that active policy and technical support for energy efficiency measures will lead to an even higher reduction in energy intensity of almost 73%.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario follows the same efficiency pathway, apart from in the transport sector, where a further reduction of 17% due to less vehicle use and lifestyle changes has been assumed. The increased share of electric vehicles in this scenario, with greater efficiency of electric drives, leads to a further decrease in final energy use.