energy demand by sector
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for 6 North America’s final energy demand.These are shown in Figure 6.14 for the Reference and both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario total primary energy demand increases by more than 12% from the current 115,803 PJ/a to 129,807 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, primary energy demand decreases by 39% compared to current consumption and is expected to reach 70,222 PJ/a by 2050. In the advanced version, transport sector demand in OECD North America is 11% lower by 2050 than in the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario; other sectors remain basically the same.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario electricity demand is expected to decrease in the industry sector but to grow in the transport sector, whereas in the residential and service sectors electricity demand remains nearly constant (see Figure 6.15).Total electricity demand will rise to 5,578 TWh/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 2,847 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario demand for heat supply is expected to decrease almost constantly (see Figure 6.16). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 5,372 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050 in both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.
In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will decrease by half to 16,564 PJ/a by 2050, saving 50% compared to the Reference scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.The advanced version will further decrease demand - through lifestyle changes, increased efficiency in transport systems and a higher share of electric drives - to 44% of the reference case.