The development of the electricity supply sector is characterised by an increasing share of renewable electricity. By 2050, 97% of the 6 electricity produced in Latin America will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute more than 47% of electricity generation.The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 143 GW to 705 GW in 2050, increasing renewable capacity by a factor of five within the next 40 years.
Figure 6.27 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2020, hydro power and wind will remain the main contributors to the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaic and solar thermal (CSP) energy.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario projects a faster market development pathway, with higher annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 89% by 2030 and 98% by 2050.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 379 GW in 2030 and 842 GW by 2050, 19% higher than in the basic version.
None of these numbers - even in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario - utilise the maximum known technical potential of all the renewable resources. While the deployment rate compared to the technical potential for hydro power, for example, is relatively high at 33% in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, for solar only less than 1% has been used both in the basic version and in the advanced scenario.