energy demand by sector
Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for Latin 6 America’s energy demand.These are shown in Figure 6.23 for both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario total primary energy demand more than doubles from the current 22,733 PJ/a to 41,327 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario a smaller 25% increase from current consumption is expected by 2050, reaching 28,354 PJ/a and 27,326 PJ/a in the advanced version.
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main source of growing consumption.This is due to wider access to energy services in developing countries (see Figure 6.24). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 2,185 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 388 TWh/a. This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices. Employment of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for air-conditioning.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier, and more journeys – for both freight and passengers - are shifted to electric trains and public transport. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen.This means that electricity production in the advanced version is higher, and reaches 2,502 TWh/a in 2050, 17% above the Reference case.
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced (see Figure 6.25). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 1,586 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will increase by a 13% to 6,089 PJ/a by 2050, saving 53% compared to the Reference scenario.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario goes one step further and factors in a faster decrease in transport energy demand after a peak in 2030. This is achieved through a mix of increased public transport, reduced annual person-kilometres and wider use of more efficient engines and electric drives. While electricity demand increases, the overall final energy use falls to 21,403 PJ/a, 37% lower than in the Reference case.