Energy Blue Print
Archive 2010

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market.This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 91% of the electricity produced in OECD Europe will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 54% of electricity generation.The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 269 GW to 1,175 GW in 2050, increasing renewable capacity by a factor of 4.

The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario takes a faster market development with higher annual growth rates into account and will achieve a renewable electricity share from 69% by 2030 and 97% by 2050.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 966 GW in 2030 and 1,506 GW by 2050, 28% higher than in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.

Figure 6.36 shows the evolution of the European electricity mix under 3 different scenarios. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by elelctricty from biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal (CSP) energy.The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a higher share of fluctuating power generation source (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 31% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.

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