Energy Blue Print
Archive 2010

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

archives2010 archiveregionaloecd europe

energy demand by sector

The future development pathways for Europe’s energy demand are shown in Figure 6.32 for the Reference and both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in OECD Europe increases by more than 7% from the current 77,585 PJ/a to 83,102 PJ/a in 2050.The energy demand in 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario decreases by 36% and 38% in the advanced case, compared to current consumption. By 2050 it is expected to reach 49,853 PJ/a and 48,489 PJ/a in the advanced scenario.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricty sector. Under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 6.34). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 7,211 PJ/a, is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industry as well as in the residential and service sectors is expected to decrease after 2015 (see Figure 6.33). Because of the growing use of electric vehicles however, electricity demand increases to 3,730 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in industry and other sectors avoid the generation of about 1,850 TWh/a. This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology.

In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will decrease by almost half to 8,848 PJ/a by 2050, saving 45% compared to the Reference scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility related behaviour patterns.

The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier and more transport - both from freight and persons - will be shifted towards electric trains and public transport. Besides fossil fuels are phased out quicker from industrial process heat generation and shifted towards electric geothermal heatpumps and hydrogen.Therefore the electricity demand in the advanved Energy [R]evolution is higher and reaches 4,375 TWh/a in 2050, 8% below the reference case.

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