Energy Blue Print
Archive 2010

Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to renewable energies will require additional investment and higher supply costs over about twenty years

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electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity.By 2050, 78% of the electricity produced in Africa will come from renewable sources. A major driver for the expansion of solar power generation capacity will be the export of solar electricity to OECD Europe. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 66% of electricity generation.The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow under the Energy [R]evolution scenario from the current 24 GW to 418 GW in 2050, increasing renewable capacity by a factor of 17.

The advanced version projects a faster market development with higher annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 52% by 2030 and 94% by 2050.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 172 GW in 2030 and 537 GW by 2050, 28% higher than in the basic version.

None of these numbers - even in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario - utilise the maximum known technical potential of all the renewable resources. While the deployment rate compared to the technical potential for geothermal power, for example, is relatively high at approx 2/3 in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, for concentrated solar power only less than 1% has been used in the advanced version scenario. Figure 6.45 shows the cpmparative evolution of the renewable technologies over time. Up to 2020hydro and wind will remain the main contributors to the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal (CSP) energy.

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