In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will almost double to 5,276 PJ/a by 2050, saving 25% compared to the Reference scenario. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns.The African vehicle stock, however, is projected to grow in all scenarios significantly by a factor of six.
Development of fuel efficiency is delayed by 20 years in the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by ten years in the advanced version compared to other world regions for economic reasons. By 2050, Africa will still have the lowest average fuel consumption. By 2030, electricity will provide 1% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in the advanced version the share will be 2% in 2030 and 16% by 2050.