development of CO2 emissions

Whilst Africa ́s emissions of CO2 will almost double (+84%) under the Reference scenario by 2050, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will be stable (881 million t in 2007 and 880 million t in 2050). Annual per capita emissions will drop from 0.9 t to 0.4 t. In spite of increasing demand, CO2 emissions decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will reduce emissions in the transport sector.Withashareof25%oftotalCO2 in2050,thepowersector will drop below transport as the largest source of emissions.

The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will shift the emissions peak for energy related CO2 about 10 years earlier than in the basic version, leading to 0.6 t per capita by 2030 and 0.2 t by 2050. By 2050, Africa ́s CO2 emissions are 59% of 1990 levels.