Future development pathways for Africa's energy demand are shown in Figure 6.41 for the Reference and both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in Africa increases by more than 63% from the current 26,380 PJ/a to 42,951 PJ/a in 2050. In both Energy [R]evolution scenarios a much smaller increase from the current consumption level is expected by 2050, reaching 34,403 PJ/a in the basic and 33,721 PJ/a in the advanced scenario.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in Africa is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 6.42). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of 1,490 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 146 TWh/a.

The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier and more transport - both from freight and passengers - are shifted to electric trains and public transport. Besides fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen.This means that electricity demand in the advanced version is higher and reaches 1,644 TWh/a in 2050, 4% above the reference case.

Efficiency gains in the heat and cooling supply sector are also significant. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenarios, final demand for heating and cooling can even be reduced (see Figure 6.43). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 898 PJ/a are avoided through efficiency gains by 2050.

In the transport sector, it is assumed under both Energy [R]evolution scenarios that energy demand will almost double to 5,276 PJ/a by 2050, saving 25% compared to the Reference scenario.This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns. Because Africa, as a developing region, has a relatively low starting point for transport demand, the outcome (in terms of kilometres travelled per person and freight volumes) has not been reduced in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario any further than in the basic version. Due to a wider use of more efficient electric drives, however, the overall final energy demand in transport increases only to 4,376 PJ/a, 37% lower than in the Reference case.