The development of the electricity supply sector in the Energy [R]evolution scenarios is characterised by an increasing share of renewable electricity. By 2050, 98% of the electricity produced in the Middle East will come from renewable sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute about 91% of electricity generation.The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 10 GW to 653 GW in 2050, a very large increase over the next 40 years, requiring political support and well-designed policy instruments.
The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario will not increase this share significantly. By 2030, 58% of electricity will come from renewables and 99% by 2050. However, the overall installed capacity (873 GW) will be higher than in the basic version.
None of these numbers - even in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario - utilise the maximum known technical potential of all the renewable resources. In the Middle East the solar energy potential is so large that it is possible to export around 300 TWh/a solar electricity from either photovoltaic or concentrated solar power stations to Europe, Africa or the Transition Economies via a transnational super grid.The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario uses only 0.1% of the technical potential of CSP.