The future development pathways for the Middle East’s final energy demand are shown in Figure 6.50 for the Reference and both Energy [R]evolution scenarios. Under the Reference, scenario total primary energy demand more than doubles from the current 21,363 PJ/a to 51,356 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, a much smaller 28% increase from current consumption levels is expected by 2050, reaching 27,301 PJ/a.

Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario (see Figure 6.52), consumption equivalent to 2,005 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050. In the Middle East it is also possible to use concentrated solar power directly for industrial process heat; this explains the larger share of solar energy in the advanced version.

Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 6.51), leading to an electricity demand of around 1,870 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 754 TWh/a in industry, households, commerce and service.

In the transport sector it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that energy demand will increase slightly compared to today’s level, reaching 5,290 PJ/a by 2050, a saving of 52% compared to the Reference scenario.This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility- related behaviour patterns.

The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario goes one step further and factors even in a decrease in transport energy demand of 3% compared with today.This is achieved through a mix of increased public transport, reduced annual person kilometres and wider use of more efficient engines and electric drives. While electricity demand increases, the final energy use in the transport sector falls to 4,232 PJ/a, 61% lower than in the Reference case.

The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario introduces electric vehicles earlier and more journeys – for both freight and passengers - are shifted to electric trains and public transport. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric geothermal heat pumps and hydrogen.This means that electricity demand in the advanced version is higher, and reaches 2,185 TWh/a in 2050, even 7% higher than the Reference case.