The development of the electricity supply sector in the Energy [R]evolution scenario is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market.This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 81% of the electricity produced in the Transition Economies will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 33% of electricity generation.The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will grow from the current 91 GW to 554 GW in 2050, increasing renewable capacity by a factor of 6.This will require political support and well-designed policy instruments.The advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario projects a faster market development with higher annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 53% by 2030 and 93% by 2050.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 330 GW in 2030 and 735 GW by 2050, 33% higher than in the basic version.
None of these numbers - even in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario - utilise the maximum known technical potential of all the renewable resources. While the deployment rate compared to the technical potential for hydro power, for example, is relatively high at 28% in the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario, for photovoltaic only 0.4% has been used in the advanced scenario.
Figure 6.63 shows the expansion rate of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2020, hydro power and wind will remain the main contributors to the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaic and geothermal energy.