future costs of electricity generation

Figure 6.64 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases the costs of electricity generation compared to the Reference scenario.This difference will be less than 1 cent/kWh up to 2020, however. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, by 2020 costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, and by 2050 costs will be more than 5 cents/kWh below those in the Reference scenario. Due to growing demand, there will be a significant increase in society’s expenditure on electricity supply. Under the Reference scenario, total electricity supply costs will rise from today’s $163 billion per year to $555 billion in 2050. Figure 6.64 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with Transition Economies` CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs and relieve the economic pressure on society. Long term costs for electricity supply are one third lower than in the Reference scenario.

In both Energy [R]evolution scenarios the specific generation costs are almost on the same level until 2030. In 2050 the advanced Energy [R]evolution scenario has with 8 cents/kWh lower generation costs, because of greater economics of scale in renewable power equipment. Despite the increased electricity demand especially in the transport and industry sector the overall total supply costs in the advanced case are $26 billion in 2030 and $32 billion in 2050 lower than in the Energy [R]evolution scenario.